In a factual and thought-provoking presentation, Biruni Institute draws attention to the much-needed economic issues in the country. Sharing a quick throwback of the economy in the last 15 years, the presentation by the Biruni Institute indicated that economic performance and development progress in Afghanistan have significantly slowed since 2014, and in some areas have even reversed.
Speaking at the Herat Security Dialogue VIII on October 18-19, 2019, Nazir Kabiri, Executive Director of the Biruni Institute said that currently more than half of the civilian budget, including recurrent and development expenditures, is financed by donor civilian grants. Giving a long-term growth outlook (2020-2030), Biruni’s presentation indicated that Afghanistan, with a substantial financing gap of about 18% of GDP by 2030, will continue to rely on donor grants to finance both its civilian and security spending needs for the foreseeable future.
Violence and insurgency, geo-political tensions, large illicit economy (opium, smuggling), weak institutions, severe corruption, high unemployment, demographic surge, and Illiteracy are some of the main sources of persistent fragility in the country. The Institute believes that fragility will continue to threaten Afghanistan’s growth prospects even if a “peace settlement” is reached.
Briuni Institute’s full presentation, with annotated Farsi translations, is available in the following link:
https://biruni.af/afghanistans-economic-prospects-under-a-fragility-lens/
Note: The Herat Security Dialogue (HSD) is an annual international conference, held by the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS). It is attended by government officials, international organization delegates, legislators, academic experts, distinguished journalists, business delegates, media and civil society representatives from Afghanistan, the region and wider international community.
